UADC-2011 potential-break analysis

I had created a MATLAB script to generate tab details for a tournament for each round, given the format, number of rounds and number of teams. The script is quite accurate, based on what i've tested it against other tournaments. The assumption of course is that teams would generally go up against teams from the same W/L bracket.

Applying that to the UADC this year, with the following data:

Format: Asians 3-on-3
Rounds: 8
Teams: 102
Breaks: 24 (pre-octos)

The output is as shown below (open in a separate window to view it clearly):


As seen, the final break ends at 5 wins. There are approximately 14 teams with guaranteed breaks on a 6-2 or higher W/L margin. That means that the top 10 out of 22 5-3 teams will break to the pre-octos.

However, be be sure of getting a bye to the octo-finals, a time should aim at an 8-0 or 7-1 record, although the top 4 or 5 6-2 teams will get a bye, but that would depend on speaker scores.

Looking at the bubble, since 4 losses would eliminate a team, the bubble would start forming after Round 3 itself, with teams in the 0-3 bracket (12 teams) and Round 4 with teams in the 1-3 bracket (25 teams in that bracket itself, and about 70 teams above them).

Typically, R5 would be most crucial for teams aiming to break, with teams in the 1-3 bracket (25 teams) and 2-2 bracket (38 teams) needing to do well in this round. More so with a sliding bracket power-matching. A loss in that round would eliminate about 12 teams from the breaks, and create another big bubble of 31 teams in the 2-3 bubble for R6.

For the 2-2 teams that win and thus end up on 3-2, it gives them a bit of buffer, but then, R6 would be crucial based on which team they go up againt, since they would be facing the teams from the 3-1 bracket that lost. A win in R5 would also allow teams to carry the momentum into R6 and R7, as well as guarantee a reasonable quality of adjudication in those rounds. Typically, adj cores would start looking to create high panels in these rounds for the centre bubble rooms. R8 is a totally different matter - its the endgame, and generally defies all calculations (although by this time, the bubble is 43 teams) .

Looking at the results, after 8 prelims rounds:

8-0 - 0.3984 teams
7-1 - 3.1875 teams
6-2 - 11.1563 teams
(certain breaks above this)

5-3 - 22.3125 teams (top 10 teams will break)
4-4 - 27.8906 teams
3-5 - 22.3125 teams


(below this line isnt an enviable tab position to end up on)
2-6 - 11.1563 teams
1-7 - 3.1875 teams
0-7 - 0.3984 teams (heres hoping there isnt a 0 wins team at this UADC)